Probable Biden Administration impacts to H-1B Visas reform. The immigration puzzle has three critical parts: the law, the guidelines, and the administration of the rules. It is essential to understand a few factors that will affect these components.
H-1B Visas | Likelihood of change
If the new Biden government faces a partitioned Congress, the Administration isn’t probably going to attempt to change the laws. However, a Biden government is much more favorably disposed to immigration and the free progression of talent across borders than the Trump government was. So, it probably will move to address the rules and the administration aspects. That is actually what the Trump government did when it couldn’t change the laws. Through rulemaking and, most importantly, through the administration of the process. The Administration succeeded in drastically changing the landscape for H-1B, L1, and other immigration visas.
Significantly, changes in the administration of the laws had the greatest effect under the Trump government. So a Biden Administration change in this area will prove to be significant.
Timing of change
The rules will take some time to roll back or change, and we right now need clarity on the new government’s plan concerning the amount it would roll back the Trump-changed rules. However, a concerted effort in this area could begin to show changes within 18 months. But likely would take a few years to completely finish.
Having said that, remember that the administration of the guidelines and laws can change a lot quicker than the rules and laws. So, we are probably going to consider important changes as soon at the new Administration takes over.
I expect the new Administration to attempt to withdraw, fail to pursue or, most likely, come to a settlement positive for the more open borders policy that the tech firms favor. Hence, it is highly likely that the US will move into a period where immigration of all types of workers. Especially talent in the high-skilled classes for IT modernization and digital transformation programs – becomes much easier.
Three factors in the current US talent shortage will influence how much change happens under a Biden Administration.
First, I believe that the foreign third-party services industry will proceed with its limitation endeavors in the US. These changes are well received by customers and create less resentment in the US political realm. Having said that, I expect businesses to additionally will use a more friendly visa environment as the talent from India is very deep and cost-effective.
Second, given that the localization efforts are highly likely to continue and US businesses increasingly express their preference for a diverse talent mix. I expect the service providers won’t have the option to accomplish increased margins.
The third factor is the master plan. It would take a substantial restructuring of US higher education for the US to have the option to meet its needs for talent with STEM skills. As this seems to be impossible, we can expect that the US should work with a STEM deficit for the foreseeable future.